Republicans are trying to flip the House this year and the race is competitive, but they may not be able to pull it off. Here’s how things look right now with a little over two years until 2022 elections.
The “2022 midterm elections predictions” is a blog post that talks about the current state of the race for the House in 2022. The author predicts Republicans will win back the house.
So, how probable is it that Republicans will win this election? Very probable in the past. In the first midterm election of a new president’s term, the party in power usually loses seats. According to Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, the president’s party has lost an average of 30 House seats in midterm elections over the previous 100 years. To capture the chamber this year, Republicans just need a net gain of five seats.
A word of caution: gaining five seats via net is not the same as winning five seats. To gain control of the House, a party must win at least 218 seats. Republicans and Democrats are both seeking to flip seats this year, so any GOP victories will have to be offset by any losses.
Republicans, on the other hand, aren’t very concerned about losses right now. The national atmosphere seems to be working in their advantage, given historical patterns in their favor and President Joe Biden’s popularity rating of 40% in the most recent CNN average of national surveys. In recent months, numerous veteran Democratic incumbents have announced their retirements, indicating that they were not looking forward to being in the minority.
But it isn’t all doom and gloom for Democrats. The House map isn’t as Republican-friendly as the governing party anticipated it would be. With the exception of a few states, the once-in-a-decade redistricting process is largely complete, resulting in new congressional boundaries that Democrats believe will help them keep their majority.
The key lesson from redistricting is that the number of contested House seats has decreased, which implies that primaries will be the primary event in most states rather than general elections.
Several states are holding member-on-member primaries, in which two incumbents are competing in the same district, either because their state lost a seat due to redistricting or because they were grouped together for political purposes. While such elections may offer plenty of intraparty drama — and, in some circumstances, a measure of Trump’s continuing power over the GOP — they aren’t anticipated to have much of an impact on the general election. In West Virginia, for example, two Republican incumbents are facing battle in a highly Republican district, one of whom opposed to the 2020 presidential election being certified and the other who did not. The seat is exceedingly unlikely to slip into Democratic control in November, regardless of who wins the May primary.
Open primaries are held in several states, when candidates from all parties compete on the same primary ballot, with the top two or four candidates proceeding to the general election. One of those places is Alaska, where Sarah Palin, the former governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential contender, is running in a special election for the state’s at-large seat left empty by Republican Rep. Don Young’s death last month. Republicans are anticipated to retain this seat unless there are any shocks in the primary.
Inside Elections presently rates just 61 House contests (out of 435) as competitive. Only 16 of them are considered toss-up contests, including seven Republicans, eight Democrats, and one new seat in Colorado.
Because there are fewer contested contests, Republicans will have to go deeper into Democratic territory to find pickup chances. On Wednesday, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm, added 72 Democratic-held or newly formed seats to its target list, including areas that now-President Joe Biden won by double digits in 2020. These target lists, of course, change over time and may not always represent where money is spent.
House Majority PAC, the biggest Democratic super PAC focusing on House elections, announced TV and digital advertising reservations totaling more than $100 million across 50 media areas on the same day as the NRCC release. That’s about twice what the organization spent on initial 2020 reservations.
Opportunities for Republicans
The Democratic-held districts that Trump won in 2020 will undoubtedly be a key priority for Republicans. Reps. Jared Golden of Maine, Cindy Axne of Iowa, and Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania all represent districts that are up for election this fall.
However, the bulk of the seats targeted by the NRCC are ones that Biden won. That demonstrates how few “crossover” districts — those that went one way for president but supported a rival party’s US House representative — are available for Republicans to attempt to change.
Former Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson, a Democrat whose district voted for Trump by the largest margin — 30 points — in 2016, has been obliterated by more nationalistic and political elections. The head of the House Agriculture Committee, however, was defeated in 2020 after barely retaining his large rural constituency in 2018.
Republicans were heartened by their gains among Hispanic voters in 2020, and they expect to continue that trend this year, particularly in areas like Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, where many House districts are up for grabs.
They’re also aiming to reclaim some of the typically Republican-leaning suburban seats that shifted away from them during Trump’s presidency.
Republican pick-up possibilities have arisen as a result of Democratic retirements. Cheri Bustos, the former leader of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, is a retiring Illinois congresswoman who has often praised her triumph in a Trump-voting district. Rep. Conor Lamb, who is running for Senate in Pennsylvania, touts his winning record in Trump country. According to Inside Elections, both are leaving seats where competitive contests will be held.
On defense, Democrats
Democrats who want to keep their House majority must defend their current seats while also hope to pick up a few more to help offset the expected losses they’ll face in a midterm year with their party in complete control of Washington (the White House, Senate and House).
The DCCC refers to incumbents as “Frontline” members in the House of Representatives. Many of these incumbents have had difficult contests in the past, and redistricting improved some of their districts, but not enough to secure a smooth reelection in a challenging national atmosphere.
For example, Golden, a two-term incumbent from Maine, has a track record of outperforming the top of the ticket. His district’s White working-class people voted twice for Trump, and Golden was re-elected by 6 points in 2020. Even if he defied the Democratic Party’s national leadership on key votes in Washington, he’ll face a difficult battle, maybe against a more well-funded and organized opponent than he faced two years ago. Former Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin, who was defeated by Golden in 2018 under Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, is seeking for re-election. The race is rated a Toss-up by Inside Elections.
Many of the Frontliners in the DCCC who won in 2018 — when Democrats took the House during Trump’s presidency — are used to raising large quantities of money. They broke quarterly records for hauls in the millions, outdoing even certain Senate contenders. However, not all Democrats who may face challenging contests this year as a result of redistricting are used to campaigning at that level. Reps. Sanford Bishop of Georgia and Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, both longstanding incumbents, haven’t faced a difficult race in years.
Democrats think they can compete in the suburbs, where Republicans have lost favor under Trump. Despite the fact that Trump is neither in government or on the ballot, Democrats will be put to the test to see whether they can maintain base voter excitement without him.
Democrats are also looking for pickups, particularly in Republican-held districts that Biden won. This includes a few seats in California and New York, however the district boundaries in the Empire State have been thrown into doubt when a court rejected the Democratic-drawn map on Thursday.
Even though Trump isn’t on the ballot this year, he’s demonstrating that he still wants to be a political force in the Republican Party. That’s excellent news for Democrats if he can push Republican candidates to the right in primaries for competitive districts. In Michigan, for example, he’s endorsing a primary opponent to rookie Rep. Peter Meijer, who voted to impeach Trump and in a seat that Republicans may find difficult to hold without him.
The “2022 senate elections predictions 538” is a blog post that offers an analysis of the current state of the Senate races. The article gives a prediction on which party will win back control of the Senate in 2022.
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